The Commanders Are Built to Break Elite Offenses
Adam Peters' forward-thinking roster construction has given the defense new answers to a test that appeared to have only one answer.
Create the problem, sell the solution.
It’s a near-perfect business model, moral conflicts aside. The world is subjected to your version of reality, and it also depends on you to help it break free.
This philosophy summarizes one of the sweeping trends of NFL offenses – but whether through a stroke of genius, acute foresight, or dumb luck, general manager Adam Peters has built the Washington Commanders in a way that could make them impervious to the tricks of opposing offenses.
But before we talk about the how, we must learn the why.
Knowing the ropes
I’ll do my best not to make the upcoming sections too dense, but I need to make sure that everyone knows the basic terminology for NFL personnel groups.
OFFENSE
12 personnel: one running back, two tight ends
13 personnel: one running back, three tight ends
DEFENSE
Base: either 3-4 or 4-3, depending on defensive philosophy
Nickel: five defensive backs
Dime: six defensive backs
Sub packages: deviation from standard personnel groups, including nickel, dime, goal line, etc. (only nickel and dime for this exercise)
Offensive personnel groups are defined by two numbers. The first number refers to the number of running backs on the field, while the second refers to the number of tight ends on the field of play. So, 12 personnel is one running back and two tight ends; 31 personnel is three running backs and one tight end; and the wildly unpopular 04 personnel is zero running backs and four tight ends, which would be… something.
One of the latest fads in the NFL is increasing tight end utilization to force defenses to play base personnel and match the bigger bodies on the field. It’s much easier to play dime against 10 personnel, or one running back and zero tight ends (indicating there are also four wide receivers on the field) than it is against 13 personnel, where smaller defensive backs will be matched up with bigger bodies.
The reason that offenses want to force more tight ends onto the field and “go big” is not what it might first appear to be. It’s not because they want to run the ball down the throat of opposing defenses, but rather, it’s because they want to throw it over the defense’s heads as soon as they pull their defensive backs off the field.
For that reason, the best defenses in the NFL want to play with extra defensive backs as frequently as they can. That’s what makes the likes of the Seattle Seahawks’ Nick Emmanwori and the Houston Texans’ Jalen Pitre invaluable.
Not coincidentally, the Super Bowl champion Seahawks utilized sub-packages on 65.2% of plays against one-receiver sets, a whopping 38.1% more than the next-closest team, according to X (formerly Twitter) page Football Insights (@fball_insights).
The Texans, who ranked second in defensive EPA per play, were fifth in sub-package utilization against these looks.
On the flip side, the Los Angeles Rams finished second in offensive EPA per play while utilizing 13 personnel at a league-high rate, more than twice as much as the next-closest team, once again showing a correlation between efficiency and tight end usage.
Where do the Commanders fit in?
The Commanders ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 31st in defensive EPA per play. Despite that, the tandem of Joe Whitt Jr. and Dan Quinn were on the right track in trying to hold off against opposing offenses’ influence, playing sub-packages at the 10th-highest rate against one-receiver sets.
Just because the defense read the tea leaves properly didn’t mean they were in positions to find success. They still ranked eighth-worst in rushing yards allowed per play in nickel (5.2) and third-worst in dime (8.8).
Defending the pass wasn’t much better. Although they were 20th in yards allowed per attempt in dime — which was actually a source of hope compared to most of their deplorable metrics — they were 31st in the same category in nickel.
Whether out of a reluctance to get more linebackers on the field — penny for Jordan Magee’s thoughts — or an excess of trust in an underperforming secondary, the Commanders’ defense rarely considered adapting their defensive philosophy, even in the middle of a forgettable campaign.
That is where Peters’ acquisitions come into play.
Getting down to business
The massive overhaul of the front-seven, specifically, the linebacking corps, has given the Commanders genuine options they previously lacked. While offenses might’ve spent the last few years hoping that defenses would bring more linebackers on the field, that shouldn’t be the case with Washington.
One team that broke the mold of base avoidance was the Minnesota Vikings, the former employer of new Commanders Defensive Coordinator Daronte Jones.
The Vikings used base on 542 plays, the third-most in football, and were third in yards allowed per play and seventh in points allowed per game. They also generated the most pressure in the league and were in the top nine in both yards and EPA allowed per rush.
Assuming Jones brings some of Brian Flores’ principles with him to D.C., the Commanders should play a fair amount of base defense. That fits what they have.
Coach Jones is spoiled for choice at linebacker. He’ll have players such as Odafe Oweh and K’Lavon Chaisson acting as a linebacker in title only and rushing the passer in application, while the rest of the group will offer remarkable versatility.
Leo Chenal, a projected starter, has demonstrated an ability to line up over the center and guards and destroy blocks, even double teams, before putting running backs on the ground. He also flashed coverage ability in Kansas City, and figures to have a larger opportunity to show his all-around game in D.C.
Rookie and seventh-overall pick in the NFL Draft Sonny Styles is a converted safety who is comfortable dropping into man and zone coverage. He blends that background with a 6-foot-5, 244-pound frame and a terrific reading of the game that helps him fit the run without hesitation.
Both players also posted 9.99 Relative Athletic Scores at the NFL combine. Having the range to scoot around the field won’t be an issue for them.
That’s not to mention Frankie Luvu, a 2024 All-Pro and facsimile of the wildly underrated Andrew Van Ginkel, a staple in the Flores-led Vikings defense, or Jordan Magee, whose burst and instincts flashed in limited spurts last season.
What separates this group of linebackers is that they are not liabilities the same way that players on other teams are. That’s a testament not only to the versatility of the group, but the complementary nature of the players within it. “Forcing” the Commanders into base will actually play to their benefit, since the majority of the best players on the defense are in their front-seven.
What do I walk away with?
The Commanders’ linebackers will have the largest say in the success of the defense.
The group’s unique differentiation from other teams makes them an obvious X-factor for the defense. The Vikings were outstanding at getting production from their linebackers, and one of Daronte Jones’ primary tasks will undoubtedly be replicating that in the nation’s capital.
How effectively will Jones install his scheme? Only time will tell; but he has the tools to buck the trend that has given offenses the upper hand in recent seasons.